Tuesday, November 9, 2010

See what banks are doing to get commissions

The murmurs heard are now backed by data. Banks and large corporate distributors are churning mutual fund investors. Mint mutual fund editor Kayezad E. Adajania's vestors. Mint mutual fund editor Kayezad E. Adajania's story “Banks nudge investors out of MFs; smart HNIs stay for bull run“ (http://bit.ly/aTPn2A) has data to show that banks and large corporate distributors have churned their mutual fund investors, even as high net worth and do-it-yourself inves- tors have invested positively in this rising market.

Let's understand this thing called churning and why it harms you. And why it is allowed to continue. Churning, as described by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, is the excessive buy- ing and selling of securities in the investor's account by his bro- ker, for the purpose of generating commissions and without re- gard to the customer's investment objectives. Or in simpler words, it is when your broker or agent nudges you to buy and sell fre- quently in order to make the commission that comes with every trade. Churning, in most mature markets, is a violation of rules.

There are conditions under which churning is a most effective way for brokers to milk their uneducated clients (the smart ones call the shots and just get the brokers to do what they say). One: it needs a product that the retail mass is familiar with and comes without a lock- in. Mass sale of, say, currency futures is not possible since the product is un- known and will not be bought by the mass retail investor. But mutual funds have achieved a brand recall with the average urban “banked“ individual and they come without an investment lock- in period (unlike a unit-linked insur- ance plan that now comes with a five year lock-in), though there is an exit load sitting at the end of some equity funds. But then those details can be for- gotten when communicating with the investor.

Two: a transaction fee that can be collected painlessly and with minimum investor discomfort. Bank customers who also buy funds through their bank often do not see the transaction fee tagged onto each mutual fund pur- chase. Though the charge is legitimate (the capital market regulator has banned loads, not a transaction fee), its use to generate churning income is not.
That makes up one part of the banks' income from each sale of the fund. The other part comes from the fund house itself that shares about 75 basis points out of its annual 1.25% fee on the assets under management (AUM) with the bank and distribution house. Rough calculations say that just this has earned banks `110 crore in the past one year. And we are not counting transaction fees and trail commissions (keep investor for a year, earn trail, then churn).

Three: a rising market. The retail investor looks at round numbers and not nuanced portfolio return figures. She puts in 100 and waits for it to become 115-120 at the end of the year. A rising market ensures that in most cases it does. What she does not know is that the market has actually done better and, even in an index fund, her money would have been at 140 or if she stayed in a well-managed fund, even 150 or 160.

All three conditions have been in place for the past one year, leading to the story of banks and large distributors churning their retail mutual fund investors. The noise around the net outflow from equity funds caused by no-loads is hiding the true story: of money that came in but was pushed out again. More than `42,000 crore came into equity funds in the last one year.
Why did it come in? Who sold these funds and why if there are no loads? Look at the data break up and the story emerges.
About `14,000 crore was invested through the banking channel and almost `16,000 crore was sold off. Investors put in another `13,000 crore through national distributors, who sold almost `15,000 crore (remember, a rising market takes the assets un- der management up, making it possible to have a higher out- flow over inflow figure, apart from the fact that earlier invest- ments could also have got redeemed). But investors who go di- rectly to the fund house invested about `4,000 crore and sold `3,000 crore--a net inflow of about `1,000 crore. The data on the behaviour of the retail versus high net worth investor is even more telling. Retail investors (most of whom rely on the advice of banks and distributors) invested `16,000 crore and redeemed `18,000 crore, HNIs have invested `16,000 crore and sold `15,000 crore.

The biggest churn has happened through the banking channel and un- fortunately the banking regulator, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been ignoring the issue of bank branches be- ing used as mis-selling and churn sta- tions. Many interactions with senior RBI officers have shown a hands-over- ears approach. Could it be that the mandate of the regulator is to manage the macroeconomic picture and pre- vent bank failure and clearly not inves- tor protection? Retail investors who use bank branches to transact on their investments, it seems, are a minuscule issue for RBI. If this is true, then, this regulatory function for the safety of re- tail investors needs to be taken away from RBI and entrusted to another en- tity.

Good article for finance people

Alack of reinvestment opportunities proportionate to its size could constrain the performance of Reliance In- dustries Ltd (RIL) on the bours- es, say analysts, citing patterns emerging from the scrip's histo- ry.

Standard Chartered Bank, in an October report, said investors have typically rewarded RIL dur- ing its investment phase, “given its track record of identifying large value-accretive projects and then executing it to near perfection“.

The size of RIL's free cash flow, however, has grown too large for investing in available organic opportunities, analysts Rahul Singh, Avishek Datta and Saurav Anand had wrote.

Free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital expen- diture and dividends, or essen- tially the extra money a compa- ny can set aside for investments or expansions.

The StanChart analysts expect RIL's operating cash flow till fis- cal year 2013 to be $24 billion (`1.06 trillion), but estimate capital expenditure at $17 bil- lion for recent projects such as shale gas and broadband wire- less, as well as for ongoing de- velopment and exploration costs and maintenance expenditure. That would leave RIL with a free cash flow of around $7 bil- lion by fiscal 2013.

RIL's stock has been trailing the benchmark Sensex for some- time now. Through fiscal years 2009 and 2010, its shares gained 41.10%, while the Sensex rose 80.54%. This year, RIL shares gained 13.66%, and the Sensex, 29.05%.

RIL, a constituent of the 30- stock Sensex, has a 12.15% weight in it. On Tuesday, RIL shares ended nearly flat at `1,107.45, as did the Sensex at 20,932.48 points.

Historically, RIL's stock has done well while in an invest- ment cycle, and has been sub- dued during periods of high free cash flow arising out of the in- vestments.

During peak investment cy- cles such as in 2003 and 2004, when it invested in its telecom business, and between 2006 and 2008, when work on its refinery in Jamanagar and on its oil and gas block KG-D6 were in prog- ress, RIL's shares outperformed the broader market.

Between 2006 and 2008, for instance, RIL's shares rose al- most 30% on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), while the Sensex gained just 1.29%.

But periods of high cash flow such as between 2001 and 2002 and between 2004 and 2005 saw the stock underperform.

Some analysts, however, said RIL's free cash flow may not be as high as is estimated.

“It is not possible to take a call on what RIL's free cash flow would be couple of years down the line. It has announced some mega investment plans and might announce new ones that would need more money,“ said S.P. Tulsian, an independent stock market analyst in Mumbai.

The StanChart report recognizes that more oil and gas dis- coveries could start a new capex cycle, but says any significant exploration and production capex in the next two-three years is unlikely given the long gestation in getting approvals and the formulation of a devel- opment plan.

Experts said that while RIL's investment in its recently ac- quired shale gas assets in the US would be significant over the next 10 years, the assets would become self-funding quickly. Also, there was limited visibility at the moment on other projects RIL has announced such as broadband wireless and power.

Niraj Mansingka, oil and gas sector analyst with Edelweiss Securities Ltd, said the capex RIL announced for some of its new projects is in the initial phase and would gather mo- mentum and yield returns over the next two-three years.

Cyclical changes in the oil and gas sector have also influenced RIL's stock movement.

“While the performance in 2006-08 was definitely helped by the extraordinary strength in the refining cycle and the innovative listing of Reliance Petroleum Ltd, we believe that only partly explains the outperformance,“ Standard Chartered said.

Mansingka said the cyclical nature of the oil and gas sector has become a more important determinant of how RIL's share prices move rather than project- based capex.

“The profitability from a proj- ect compared to the capex in- curred on it is not as high as be- fore since RIL has become a very large company now. So investors are looking at the cycles of the exploration and production business for an indication,“ Mansingka said.

Analysts expect refining mar- gins to remain subdued over the next two fiscal years, given the capacity expansions planned by Asian refiners and a modest de- mand recovery in developed markets.

QUANTITATIVE EASING - Under attack from ...

QUANTITATIVE EASING - Under attack from ...

When the Federal Reserve announced last week that it would buy $600 billion (`26.6 trillion) in US treasury bonds to help bolster the econ- omy, it quickly came under at- tack from Germany, Brazil and...read more...

EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS - Tata Motors net...

EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS - Tata Motors net...

Beating Street estimates, Tata Motors Ltd, India's Tata Motors Ltd, India's largest auto maker by sales, posted a 100-fold jump in net profit due to a buoyant local market and a surge in sales at UK s...read more...

We say cars are major problem today which contribute to green house effect. Really?

Obama visit to India.

Somebody commented that we shouldn't have entertained Obama on the occasion of Diwali because if we were to go to US visit in the month of Christmas definatly they wouldst have entertained us. Well the argument is nice but what is the difference between US and INDIA if we behave the same way as US. And actually we should be proud that a country which calls itself superpower is in our country to ask for help. Its actually time to think who is actually superpower

Chinese Invasion

I visited a mall nearby. Every item that i picked up was Chinese made. The mall had 70 to 80% of the stuff Chinese but sold in the name of american brand or a brand we have never heard. The original cost of the items may be below 20 to 30 rupees but the selling price stands at 150 to 350 rupees. Look at the margins these people are taking from customers ? Is it justified and if not why still people pay in-spite of knowing that we are being fooled ?

An idea which just came to my mind ?

Imagine a busy town with busy people with busy road. What is i have a car wash beside a petrol pump which washes your car in 40 seconds. Car enters the car wash from one side. Close the windows , roll the glass windows up, sit tight. The car moves on conveyor belt and goes through series of stages of cleaning and comes out clean and polished in 30 to 40 seconds. Do you think this business will work in a city like mumbai where people dont have time to clean their cars but they want their cars clean. I think it should work but the only hiccup is the machine which can clean the car in mere 40 sec. possible ?

Monday, November 8, 2010

IS LM model

This is one amazing model which can tell you how to bring the depressed economy back to equilibrium. The model talks about all the effects of government policies that is monetary as well as fiscal. This can give you idea of how the economy is going to respond when stimulus packages are declared and when monetary policies are changed. This is one amazing tool which can simulate the economic condition in the class. All sounds great but all these policy modification has its own implications and negative effects which we haven't talked about in the so far. But there is only one hiccup in all this, the model is difficult understand in first short.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

2900 cr is the spending on Obama visit ?

According to one news channel the Obama visit to india is gonna cost USA 2900cr. Protest about this have already started in US.

Where is EU heading ?

Aging population, Employment problems, debt greater than the GDP. How these economics are going to handle the supply demand problem. Can they come out of this ?

Developed countries have always spent more than what they had. Beautiful roads, fantastic parks wonderful offices which all have added to their deficit. The economies are struggling to reduce this deficit. People are working for lesser numbers of hours there by adding more to the problem. Unemployment rate is high. The economies have saturated. Interest rates are all time low. Still people are not ready to invest because they are scared. how long will this take to recover? Only time will tell. Lets see if govt macro economic policies do their magic. Only time will tell.

Is Quality equal to utility ?

We had a big debate yesterday as what is quality ?

General definition of quality is conformance to the requirement. It started with the contrasting view and ended with a convergence that quality equals utility. Utility is nothing but the satisfaction that we get from consuming or using an object. e.g Which is a quality product ? BMW or Maruti 800. Most of the people would say BMW. This is where we do not agree. We say quality is subjective. If a person can afford both BMW and Maruti, then BMW will be quality according to him because it is the one which satisfies him and not maruti. But for a person who can only afford maruti will say maruti is the quality car for him. I mean ideally he should say so as that is the one which satisfies his needs at a given purchasing power.